Adaptation to global warming consists of initiatives and measures to reduce the vulnerability of natural and human systems against actual or expected climate change effects.[1] This is in distinction to the mitigation of global warming.
According to the former Chief Scientific Adviser to the UK Government David King, it is very likely that adaptation to global warming is inevitable as "it is unlikely that levels of greenhouse gases can be kept low enough to avoid a projected temperature rise of 2 °C"[2].
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The predicted effects for the environment and for human life are numerous and varied. The main effect is an increasing global average temperature. From this flow a variety of resulting claims, namely, rising sea levels, altered patterns of agriculture, increased extreme weather and extreme weather events, the expansion of the range of tropical diseases, the opening of new trade routes.
Specific anticipated effects include sea level rise of 110 to 770 mm (0.36 to 2.5 feet) between 1990 and 2100, repercussions to agriculture, possible slowing of the thermohaline circulation, reductions in the ozone layer, increased intensity and frequency of extreme weather events, lowering of ocean pH, and the spread of diseases such as malaria and dengue fever.
A summary of probable effects and recent understanding can be found in the report made for the IPCC Third Assessment Report by Working Group II.[3] The more recent contribution of Working Group II detailing the impacts of global warming for the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report has been summarized for policymakers.[4]
One prominent attempt to broach adaptation was a 1991 report by the American National Academy of Sciences, "Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming." The National Academy report cautioned that agricultural adaptation will be essential in a greenhouse world.[5]
IPCC Working Group II argues that mitigation and adaptation should be complementary components of a response strategy to global warming. Their report makes the following observations:
Because of the current and projected climate disruption precipitated by high levels of greenhouse gas emissions by the industrialized nations, adaptation is a necessary strategy at all scales to complement climate change mitigation efforts because we cannot be sure that all climate change can be mitigated. And indeed the odds are quite high that in the long run more warming is inevitable, given the geologic evidence of the past's most similar glacial / interglacial cycle which happened about 400,000 years ago. That similarity being determined by degree of the elliptic shape of the earth's orbit and how close the Sun is when the most land, that is the northern hemisphere, is being warmed by it.
Adaptation has the potential to reduce adverse impacts of climate change and to enhance beneficial impacts, but will incur costs and will not prevent all damages. Extremes, variability, and rates of change are all key features in addressing vulnerability and adaptation to climate change, not simply changes in average climate conditions.[citation needed]
Human and natural systems will to some degree adapt autonomously to climate change.[citation needed] Planned adaptation can supplement autonomous adaptation, though there are more options and greater possibility for offering incentives in the case of adaptation of human systems than in the case of adaptation to protect natural systems.[7]
The ability of human systems to adapt to and cope with climate change generally depends on such factors as wealth, technology, education, information, skills, infrastructure, access to resources, management capabilities, and sociopolitical will. There is potential for more advantaged and less advantaged countries to enhance and/or acquire adaptive capabilities. Populations and communities are highly variable in their endowments with these attributes, and disadvantaged countries are weakest in this regard. As a result, they have lesser capacity to adapt and are more vulnerable to climate change damages, just as they are more vulnerable to other stresses. This condition is most extreme among the most disadvantaged people.[8]
Many communities and regions that are vulnerable to climate change are also under pressure from forces such as population growth, resource depletion, and poverty. Policies that lessen pressures on resources, improve management of environmental risks, and increase the welfare of the poorest members of society can simultaneously advance sustainable development and equity, enhance adaptive capacity, and reduce vulnerability to climate and other stresses. Inclusion of climatic risks in the design and implementation of national and international development initiatives such as polar cities can promote equity and development that is more sustainable and that reduces vulnerability to climate change.[9]
A study by the American National Center for Policy Analysis argues that adaptation is more cost-effective than mitigation. Their report makes the following observations:
Under the Kyoto Protocol, the United States would have agreed to cut greenhouse emissions by about 400 million tons per year by 2012. In 2003 the world net output of anthropogenic carbon dioxide, the chief greenhouse gas, was about 25 billion metric tons annually.[11]
Even with the Kyoto Protocol, global emissions by 2015 will rise to perhaps 9 billion tons[citation needed], 50 percent higher than today's level. Such nearly-inevitable carbon buildup ought to tell us is that if greenhouse theory is right, a warming world is now unavoidable: at least through the next generation, until a renewable-fuels energy economy can be created.[12]
James Titus identifies the following criteria[13] that policy makers should use in assessing responses to global warming:
Scheraga and Grambsch[14] identify 9 fundamental principles to be considered when designing adaptation policy.
Examples of adaptation include defending against rising sea levels through better flood defences, and changing patterns of land use like avoiding more vulnerable areas for housing.
A significant effect of global climate change, especially global rainfall patterns may be upon agriculture.[15] Extended drought can cause the failure of small and marginal farms with resultant economic, political and social disruption.
However, such events have previously occurred in human history independent of global climate change. In recent decades, global trade has created distribution networks capable of delivering surplus food to where it is needed, thus reducing local impact.[15] There are also several ways to adapt to and minimize the disruptive effects of rainfall patterns.
Agriculture of any kind is strongly influenced by the availability of water. Climate change will modify rainfall, evaporation, runoff, and soil moisture storage. Changes in total seasonal precipitation or in its pattern of variability are both important. The occurrence of moisture stress during flowering, pollination, and grain-filling is harmful to most crops and particularly so to corn, soybeans, and wheat. Increased evaporation from the soil and accelerated transpiration in the plants themselves will cause moisture stress. As a result, there will be a need to develop crop varieties with greater drought tolerance.
The demand for water for irrigation is projected to rise in a warmer climate, bringing increased competition between agriculture--already the largest consumer of water resources in semi-arid regions--and urban as well as industrial users. Falling water tables and the resulting increase in the energy needed to pump water will make the practice of irrigation more expensive, particularly when with drier conditions more water will be required per acre.
One strategy involves adapting urban areas to increasingly severe storms by increasing rainwater storage (domestic water butts, unpaved gardens etc) and increasing the capacity of stormwater systems (and also separating stormwater from blackwater, so that overflows in peak periods do not contaminate rivers).
According to English Nature, gardeners can help mitigate the effects of climate change by providing habitats for the most threatened species, and/or saving water by changing gardens to use plants which require less.[16]
Russian and American scientists have in the past tried to control the weather, for example by seeding clouds with chemicals to try to produce rain when and where it is needed. A new method being developed involves replicating the urban heat island effect, where cities are slightly hotter than the countryside because they are darker and absorb more heat. This creates 28% more rain 20-40 miles downwind from cities compared to upwind.[17] On the timescale of several decades, new weather control techniques may become feasible which would allow control of extreme weather such as hurricanes.[18]
Glacial Lake Outburst Floods may become a bigger concern due to the retreat of glaciers, leaving behind numerous lakes that are impounded by often weak terminal moraine dams. In the past, the sudden failure of these dams has resulted in localized property damage, injury and deaths. Glacial lakes in danger of bursting can have their moraines replaced with concrete dams (which may also provide hydroelectric power).[19]
In 2000, there was a proposal made at the Sixth Conference of Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change that called for the creation of an Adaptation Fund of $1 billion per year for developing countries, especially the least developed and small island states, to enable them to combat the consequences of climate change.
Many scientists, policy makers and the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report have agreed that disadvantaged nations, especially in the global south need more attention and priority in dealing with the negative impacts of climate change. Because these regions are densely populated and people have generally lower adaptive capacity.
In the global south, national governments are largely responsible for formulation and implementation of the adaptation plan, from local to the national level. In this context, a huge contradictory situation exists. National governments attach high priority to the development polices and plans. The reason of highly preferential treatment to the development agenda is their pre-existing problems. The pre-existing problems encompasses a wide range of problems such as poverty, malnutrition, food insecurity [20], less availability of drinking water, indebtness, illiteracy, high level of unemployment, local resource conflicts, lower technological development etc. Here, it is pertinent to recognize that if climate change phenomenon is not properly understood and coping strategies such as mitigation and adaptation are not adopted on timely manner, climate change impacts will exacerbate the pre-existing problems.
Hence, there is a need of exploring strategies of integration between the climate change adaptation plan and the development plan in the global south. This integration should include principles such as social justice and equity, inclusion of marginal population in decision making, women participation and promotion of social cohesion. Inclusion of these principles will not only promote adaptation to climate change but also make development more distributive.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) produced two separate reports: "Mitigation" [1] and "Adaptation and Vulnerability"[2].
US Global Change Research Program: http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/default.php
US National Assessment -- Preparing for a Changing Climate report: http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/nationalassessment/foundation.htm
California Regional Assessment: Preparing for Climate Change: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change for California (not on Federal site) 2002: http://www.ncgia.ucsb.edu/pubs/CA_Report.pdf
The U.S. Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) published two reports containing detailed assessments of mitigation and adaptation strategies. "Changing by Degrees" investigates options for controlling emissions of carbon dioxide, the most troublesome anthropogenic greenhouse gas (OTA 1991). "Preparing for an Uncertain Climate" examines how managed natural resource systems--such as water, agriculture, and forests--might adapt to changing environmental conditions brought about by global warming (OTA 1993).
Several countries have taken a lead in climate vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning. Their web sites contain reports, strategies, and tools which other countries can customize to their own situation.
In addition to government and United Nations reports, an extensive research literature assesses options for response to global warming. Much of this literature addresses the potential economic costs associated with different strategies.
Economist William Cline offers an opposing view, arguing that potential economic costs of unabated global warming could be very high. In the monograph, "Global Warming: The Economic Stakes", Cline (1992) assesses the potential cost of damages from global warming and the cost of efforts to control greenhouse gas emissions.
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